Download Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy by Alan J. Auerbach, Ronald D. Lee PDF

By Alan J. Auerbach, Ronald D. Lee

The essays during this quantity speak about such well timed themes as demographic swap and the outlook for Social defense and Medicare within the usa; long-term determination making below uncertainty; the impact of adjusting kin constitution on govt spending; how the constitution of public retirement rules has inspired early retirement in a few nations and never others; the reaction of local people spending to demographic swap; and comparable issues. participants comprise a few of the world's prime public finance economists and monetary demographers.

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Sample text

Easterlin did in fact predict the baby bust, but he also predicted a new baby boom in the later 1980s and 1990s, which never materialized. , Lee, 1974; Lee, 1976; Wachter, 1991). S. Bureau of the Census actually incorporated feedback in experimental population forecasts published in 1975. On balance, although the feedback models are very interesting, there is not sufficient empirical evidence to justify using them for practical forecasts. Those who believe that the world population is already unsustainably large argue that the environment will bite back in response to further population growth, leading to higher mortality and lower fertility.

The model used by Lee and Carter was: ln(m( x, t )) = a( x) + b( x)k(t ) + e ( x, t ). 3 The model in fact 3 Lee and Carter then used a second stage, in which the SVD estimates of a(x) and b(x) were taken as given from the first stage, but k(t) was reestimated so as to yield the observed total number of deaths in conjunction with the observed population age distribution. This second step also made it possible to extend the time series estimate of k(t) to years in which only the total number of deaths, but not its breakdown by age, was available.

Sweden for a time appeared to have substantially raised its fertility through a combination of policies making it easier for parents to rear children without financial or career sacrifice. However, these policies turn out to have affected only the timing of births, and fertility has now fallen back to its earlier levels. It is, perhaps, surprising that projections of mortality take no account of forecasts of public expenditures on health care or on medical research, even when both are discussed together (as in Lee and Skinner, 1996).

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