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By Tomas Frejka, Jean-Paul Sardon

"This is a travel de strength in cohort fertility research, a deep and robust piece of labor. it's a impressive demonstration of the strength of actually unique empirical research of fine and accomplished info, with the knowledge checked out from each attitude and judiciously extrapolated into the long run. It represents a big contribution to our realizing of up to date low fertility in Europe and different built nations..." Thomas okay. Burch, collage of Victoria, BC, Canada

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Extra resources for Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low-Fertility Countries: A Cohort Analysis (European Studies of Population)

Example text

In West European countries this occurred usually in the latter part of the 19th century. Conceivably, this may be a simplification. 13 The notion persisted in demography that the 13 The findings of Hajnal (1965) are pertinent in this connection. A unique marriage pattern, the ‘European pattern’ characterized by late age at marriage and a high proportion of people who never married, 15 per cent or higher, apparently persisted throughout Western Europe already in the 18th century. Because marriages on average took place when both partners were in their late 20s, fertility was lower than it would have been had they married in their teens as was customary in Eastern Europe and elsewhere around the world.

Elsewhere relationships between the fertility patterns of younger women are compared with those of older women in the reproductive period. Age 27, more precisely the 27th birthday, was selected as the dividing point. The main reason for doing so is formal, namely it is half way between the ages of 15 and 40, the latter being the effective age of completed childbearing in low fertility countries during the second half of the 20th century. There was also a pragmatic reason. At the time when we started the project, in most countries data for young women of the 1970 birth cohorts were available only up to the 27th birthday.

060 or 33 per cent less than the generation born ten years earlier (Table N-2). Note, however, in the last five columns of the table that the relative differences between the generations decline with age. This indicates that the tendency for cohorts to make up for the deficits incurred when the cohorts were young continues. Table N-2. 060 -35 -54 -38 -31 -33 Nordic region 35 The curves in Figure NR-5 illustrate how each successive cohort of the 1960s and 1970s is postponing more births than any previous cohort.

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