By Sabine Lessmann, Rudolf Wildenmann
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Extra resources for Budgetary Politics and Elections: An Investigation of Public Expenditures in West Germany
These decision-making routines lead to an increase in total allocation because of additional expenditures which are not counterweighted by cuts in other areas. A description of the political setting in which German budgeting is carried out and a review of the formal budgetary cycle which might illustrate the presence of incremental change and fragmented decision-making on a theoretical as well as empirical level will follow in chapters V and VI. e. the assertion that public expenditures are influenced by time perspectives, the intensity of party competition, and re-election constraints.
D u e to the assumptions, the cycle maintains itself. In order to find some historical evidence for his macro-economic policy-making model, Nordhaus tests his theory with annual data on unemployment rates for nine countries from 1947 to 1972. His explicit assumption is that during an electoral period, the unemployment rate should rise in the first two years and fall in the second two years. His - 46 - results show that 'for three countries - Germany, New Zealand and the United States - the coincidence of business and political cycles is very marked' For Germany he cites in five cases a falling unemployment rate before elections and for no election a rising unemployment rate.
For France the conclusion drawn by Kramer et. al. is confirmed by Rosa (1980) and Lafay (1981), for Japan by Inoguchi (1980). For Germany Kirchgässner (1976), Schneider (1978), and Frey and Schneider (1979,1980,1982) emphasize the influence of the unemployment and inflation rate and the growth rate of real disposable income on voting intentions, while Rattinger (1980), Rattinger and Puschner (1982), and Schmidt (1983) refute the assumed relationship. Paldam (1981) notes that economic indicators on average explain around one-third of the variations in party popularities or voting intentions, and that the main drawback of the models on vote and popularity functions is their lack of stability.